Inventory Spikes

During 2021, much of the talk concerning inventory surrounded shortages due to a variety of factors. In response, many companies increased production and orders to combat supply chain disruptions and increased consumer demand coming out of COVID-19 lockdowns. Now, it appears that companies have overshot demand as inventories have surged. For example, inventories for global manufacturing companies reached a record $1.87 trillion. As a result, inventory turnover for manufacturers increased to 81.1 days. And retailers are no different: Inventory for Macy's, Target, Walmart and other large retailers has increased from 17 to 45 percent compared to last year. This increased inventory is a boon for off-price retailers like Ross and TJ Maxx, which have a larger supply from big retailers offloading excess inventory. For many corporations, the excess inventory will likely negatively impact the bottom line.

Bad Luck Investing

Hopefully you realize that the best time to invest is when stock prices are low and the worst time is when prices are high. But patience is a virtue and can have rewards. A recent article introduces Betty Badluck, who just happened to invest at the stock market tops during the past 35 years. So what happened to Betty? As you will see, while the returns were not fantastic, over time, the stock market has historically rebounded and she still has three times her investment in real terms. This is an important note on stock market history: While we can't predict the future, over the long-term, the stock market has historically provided positive returns.