Sunday, March 22, 2015
An Uber Valuation
So is Uber ($40 billion) really worth more than insurers Aetna ($38
billion), Prudential ($38 billion), or grocer Kroger ($37 billion)?
Probably not, but venture capital valuations can be quite tricky. A recent article
discusses some of the fuzziness associated with valuing a private company.
In fact, some venture capitalists argue that the valuation of private
companies is just a placeholder. Snapchat, the photo-messaging app, has a $15 billion valuation, yet the company has almost no revenues to speak of. One reason for the extraordinarily high valuation of private companies is that VCs often have deals that protect them going forward.
Bondholders Lose Protections
With the recent low interest rates, investors are searching for yields.
As a result, borrowers are able to reduce protections offered to
lenders. Moody's Investors Services tracks bond covenants
and recently the Moody's Bond Covenant Index reached 4.51, a record
high. In this index, 1 indicates the strongest covenants, while 5
indicates very weak covenants. In other words, investors are willing to
give up protection in an effort to increase yields.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Actavis' Bond Price Jump
Actavis completed its $21 billion bond offering
yesterday. The bond issue, which will be used to pay for the company's
acquisition of Allergan, was the second largest corporate bond issue
ever. Although you might think that it was difficult for Actavis to sell
$21 billion in debt, the company received offers to purchase $90
billion in bonds. The high demand for the bonds proved to be a benefit
to investors in the bonds, as the market value of the bonds increased by
$334 million today in the first day of trading.
Exxon Slows Capital Spending
As we mention in the textbook, capital spending is often cyclical. For
example, although the recent drop in oil price is welcome news at the
gas pump, it is bad news for Exxon's capital budgeting. Exxon said that it may delay
some investments if oil prices stay low. Even though Exxon's projects
are long-term, a short-term decrease in the price of oil can still
affect the profitability of a new project. In a filing last week, Exxon
announced that its capital spending in the next several years would only
be $34 billion, down from a previously announced capital budget of $37
billion.
Overseas Cash Continues To Grow
Eight of the largest U.S. tech companies increased overseas cash
balances by $69 billion last year. In fact, overseas cash held by U.S.
firms grew to $2.10 trillion during 2014,
up 8 percent from 2013. The high U.S. tax rate is the reason for the
cash holdings, although several companies took a tax hit in 2014 to
repatriate earnings. For example, Duke Energy repatriated $2.7 billion
in foreign earnings, but paid $373 million in taxes to do so. GE still
has the largest offshore cash balance, at an astounding $119 billion.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
The NASDAQ PE
A recent video on Bloomberg
might be of interest to those of you who invest in NASDAQ stocks. The
video discusses whether the PE of the NASDAQ is too high and if there is
a bubble on the NASDAQ.
How Low Can Rates Go?
With companies holding record amounts of cash, banks may be reporting record earnings as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimates that about one quarter of bank deposits
worldwide are earning negative interest rates. Switzerland and Denmark
lead the pack, with savings account rates of negative .75 percent.
Previously, zero percent was seen as the lower bound for savings rates,
but some analysts argue that the new lower bound is considerably lower
than negative .75 percent.
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